There are some wives here who are already getting ready for our husbands' return. Others are convinced that, like 1AD before us, our soldiers will be extended past their 13 month target. We have a bad precedent: many in 1AD were already home when they got turned back to Iraq. Even having our soldiers step off the plane isn't a guarantee that they're home, so no one quite knows when to breathe the sigh of relief. And the fact that the elections are supposed to take place a mere two weeks before our transfer of authority is making everyone a little crazy.
What I've been wondering lately is what exactly would have to happen to make the situation bad enough that 1ID would have to stay. Many people have been saying that "if the elections go badly", but how badly would they have to go? How intense the fighting, how widespread the chaos, how dangerous the situation? What would it take to make them hold on to the division?
I'm not getting my hopes oriented in either direction. Before 1ID left, I told myself that I would be happy as long as my husband came home before Tax Day. I still have to keep that target in mind.
Posted by Sarah at January 15, 2005 08:37 AMSarah - I find it hard to believe that any division will be leaving the theatre until well after the elections. My friend was in Iraq and supposed to be home at Easter and was extended (due to the Najaf/Sadr thing) until July. They had already stopped mail and communications and then he had 90 days extended. They were all quite upset - but - like you said - even when they get home there's no guarantees. I hope they get home by Tax Day - safe and sound.
Posted by: Kathleen A at January 15, 2005 12:35 PMBut would they wait until election day to decide that? What could happen on election day? One city erupts, all the cities erupt, on what scale, orchestrated by whom, etc? That's what I wonder. I can't imagine the scenario. What about a week after election day? Why would they even bother pretending 1ID is coming home if there's a big chance they're not?
Posted by: Sarah at January 15, 2005 04:03 PMI'd imagine that if there is going to be an extension, you'll be hearing it within the next three weeks.
Ours returned this past fall after 13 months and missed the latest round of extensions being announced by a few weeks. I did not breathe a sigh of relief until the main body returned due to knowing that by that time, their equipment was on its way home and it'd cost more to turn them around than to move up another group's deployment date and send them early.
The DoD made up for it though, they were home only a few months and are already notified they are heading back. So much for a relaxing holiday. Personally, I would have rather they just stayed an extra few months than coming home, barely getting settled and already going back.
The extensions (in my opinion) are failures to plan. I'd say due to the increases in troop numbers on the ground that they have done recently, the likelihood of yours being extended is lower than if they had not increased troop strength. I'll keep my fingers crossed that your husband and those with him are not extended.
be ready to be disappointed... for at least the next 4 years
Posted by: kingboo at January 19, 2005 07:02 PM